Executive Summary

Within the scope of the German-Pakistani Project of Technical Cooperation ‘Geohazard Assessment in Northern Pakistan (GANP)’ a landmark study to assess the risk exposure to the landslide ‘hazard’ for the Districts of Mansehra & Torghar, Province Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Islamic Republic of Pakistan has been performed.

Basically, any risk (exposure) assessment outcome facilitates a focused alignment of DRR stakeholders at the respective administrative level to particularly assign risk mitigation policies and strategies.

The objective of the risk exposure assessment for the Districts of Mansehra & Torghar was to exemplarily quantify the endangered population and selected infrastructural elements at risk exposed to the landslide ‘hazard’ and thereby subject to potential losses.

All risk exposure findings have been aggregated at the administrative level of ‘Union Council’ (UC; administrative level 5). The single hazard risk exposure appraisal links spatial and attributive information about the district-wide five graded zonation of the landslide susceptibility (GANP product), selected land cover items (GANP product), further officially accessible demographic information as well as information about critical infrastructure objects (road network and health facilities).

Unfortunately, due to the lack of further high-resolution hazard information (e.g. flooding hazard) a multi-hazard approach has not been accomplished yet.

The common risk exposure data processing was executed applying combined database and GIS tools, previously developed and successfully performed by BGR geoscientists in several countries.

In total, ten different population and infrastructure related risk exposure scenarios have been exemplified. All results are presented as risk exposure choropleth maps supplemented by corresponding statistics and explanatory notes.

Abb.2: Beispiel einer Risiko-Expositionskarte für die Distrikte Mansehra & Torghar: Exposition der Bevölkerung pro administrativer Einheit ‚Union Council‘ gegenüber Zonen mit hoher und sehr hoher räumlicher Wahrscheinlichkeit von Massenbewegungen Quelle: BGR

The most critical Union Councils with peak values of population exposure to the landslide susceptibility zones ‘Very High’ and ‘High’ are Garlat UC, Hangrai UC, Mohandri UC, and Ghanool UC. The population exposure values of these Union Councils are ranging from 16,000 to 17,000 people (Abb.2).

The exposure of roads of national importance (1. Order) to the landslide susceptibility zones ‘Very High’ and ‘High’ mainly concentrates on the Union Councils Kaghan UC, Ghanool UC, Kawai UC and Mohandri UC. These Union Councils display road (1. Order) exposure values between 8 and 30 km at which Union Council Kaghan UC is the most critical one.

The number of health facilities (undifferentiated) exposed to the landslide susceptibility zones ‘Very High’ and ‘High’ is limited to 7, spread over 6 Union Councils. The quantity of these endangered health facilities per Union Council does not exceed 2.

The most seriously threatened health facilities are situated in the Union Councils Hangrai UC (1 Basic Health Unit/BHU in the landslide susceptibility zone ‘Very High’), Kawai UC (1 Basic Health Unit/BHU and 1 Rural Health Unit/RHU in the landslide susceptibility zone ‘High’) as well as Shohal Mazullah UC, Ghanool UC, Mohandri UC, and Pairan UC in each case with 1 BHU placed in the landslide susceptibility zone ‘High’.

Based on the exposure assessment results some initial risk mitigation suggestions with special emphasis on possible GSP hazard assessment activities in the future have been submitted. These examples might only provide initial incentives to foster a comprehensive and prompt discussion about the risk exposure assessment results within the DRM community at Union Council, District, and Province level.